Global Monetary Policy Surprises and Central Bank Information Effects (updated May 2025)
Forecasting the Price of Shelter: The Importance of the Market-Shelter Gap (updated Feb. 2025)
The Role of Industrial Composition in Driving the Frequency of Price Change (with Vaishali Garga, updated Dec. 2024, R&R IJCB)
The Inflation Target and the Equilibrium Real Rate
Does Seasonal Adjustment Obscure Early Signs of Recession? (with Emily Eisner, Emi Nakamura, Jón Steinsson)
Debt, Deficits, and Interest Rates
Economica (2024); local pdf copy
Excess Stimulus and Monetary Policy
Economics Bulletin (2023); local pdf copy (including online appendices); code
Consumption Spending and Inequality during the Covid-19 Pandemic (with Vaishali Garga and Justin Rohan)
Covid Economics (2021); local pdf copy; SSRN version
A Faster Convergence of Shelter Prices and Market Rent: Implications for Inflation
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Current Policy Perspective (2024); local pdf copy; SSRN version
Coverage: American Banker; Axios; Financial Times; Monetary Policy Report to Congress
The Distribution of Sectoral Price Changes and Recent Inflation Developments (with Vaishali Garga, Giovanni P. Olivei, and Viacheslav Sheremirov)
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Current Policy Perspective (2023); local pdf copy; SSRN version
Coverage: NAHB
What Is Driving Inflation?---Beyond The Usual Culprits? (with Vaishali Garga)
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Current Policy Perspective (2023); local pdf copy (main); local pdf copy (appendix)
Forecasting CPI Shelter under Falling Market-Rent Growth (with John O'Shea)
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Current Policy Perspective (2023); local pdf copy; SSRN version
Monetary Policy and Stock Prices
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Current Policy Perspective (2022); local pdf copy; SSRN version
Debt, Deficits, and Interest Rates
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Current Policy Perspective (2021); local pdf copy; SSRN version
Consumption Heterogeneity by Occupation: Understanding the Impact of Occupation on Personal Consumption during the COVID-19 Pandemic (with Vaishali Garga and Justin Rohan)
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Research Department Working Papers (2020); local pdf copy; SSRN version